Growth in densely populated Asia: implications for primary product exporters

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource-poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource-abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade-related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self-sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia-Pacific region are drawn out in the final section

Lowering the recommended maximal wall thickness threshold improves diagnostic sensitivity in Asians with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is defined as left ventricular end-diastolic maximal wall thickness (WTMax) ≥15.0 mm, without accounting for ethnicity, sex, and body size. It is well-established that Asians have smaller hearts than do Caucasians. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to examine the implications of this single absolute WTMax threshold on the diagnosis of HCM in Asians. METHODS: The study consisted of 360 healthy volunteers (male: n = 174; age: 50 ± 12 years) and 114 genetically characterized patients with HCM (male: n = 83; age: 52 ± 13 years; genotype-positive, n = 39). All participants underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance. WTMax was measured semiautomatically at end-diastole according to the standard 16 myocardial segments. RESULTS: Healthy male volunteers had increased WTMax compared with that of female volunteers (8.4 ± 1.2 mm vs 6.6 ± 1.1 mm, respectively; P 15.0 mm (specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 51%). Lowering WTMax thresholds to 10.0 mm in female patients and 12.0 mm in male patients did not affect specificity (100%) but significantly improved sensitivity (84%). Despite lower left ventricular mass, female patients with HCM demonstrated more features of adverse cardiac remodeling than did male patients: increased myocardial fibrosis, higher asymmetric ratio, and disproportionately worse myocardial strain. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights cautious application of guideline-recommended WTMax to diagnose HCM in Asians. Lowering WTMax to account for ethnicity and sex improves diagnostic sensitivity without compromising specificity

A low-lying scalar meson nonet in a unitarized meson model

A unitarized nonrelativistic meson model which is successful for the description of the heavy and light vector and pseudoscalar mesons yields, in its extension to the scalar mesons but for the same model parameters, a complete nonet below 1 GeV. In the unitarization scheme, real and virtual meson-meson decay channels are coupled to the quark-antiquark confinement channels. The flavor-dependent harmonic-oscillator confining potential itself has bound states epsilon(1.3 GeV), S(1.5 GeV), delta(1.3 GeV), kappa(1.4 GeV), similar to the results of other bound-state qqbar models. However, the full coupled-channel equations show poles at epsilon(0.5 GeV), S(0.99 GeV), delta(0.97 GeV), kappa(0.73 GeV). Not only can these pole positions be calculated in our model, but also cross sections and phase shifts in the meson-scattering channels, which are in reasonable agreement with the available data for pion-pion, eta-pion and Kaon-pion in S-wave scattering.Comment: A slightly revised version of Zeitschrift fuer Physik C30, 615 (1986

Kaon-Nucleon Scattering Amplitudes and Z∗^*-Enhancements from Quark Born Diagrams

We derive closed form kaon-nucleon scattering amplitudes using the ``quark Born diagram" formalism, which describes the scattering as a single interaction (here the OGE spin-spin term) followed by quark line rearrangement. The low energy I=0 and I=1 S-wave KN phase shifts are in reasonably good agreement with experiment given conventional quark model parameters. For $k_{lab}> 0.7$ Gev however the I=1 elastic phase shift is larger than predicted by Gaussian wavefunctions, and we suggest possible reasons for this discrepancy. Equivalent low energy KN potentials for S-wave scattering are also derived. Finally we consider OGE forces in the related channels K$\Delta$, K$^*$N and K$^*\Delta$, and determine which have attractive interactions and might therefore exhibit strong threshold enhancements or ``Z$^*$-molecule" meson-baryon bound states. We find that the minimum-spin, minimum-isospin channels and two additional K$^*\Delta$ channels are most conducive to the formation of bound states. Related interesting topics for future experimental and theoretical studies of KN interactions are also discussed.Comment: 34 pages, figures available from the authors, revte

Quantum Smoluchowski equation: Escape from a metastable state

We develop a quantum Smoluchowski equation in terms of a true probability distribution function to describe quantum Brownian motion in configuration space in large friction limit at arbitrary temperature and derive the rate of barrier crossing and tunneling within an unified scheme. The present treatment is independent of path integral formalism and is based on canonical quantization procedure.Comment: 10 pages, To appear in the Proceedings of Statphys - Kolkata I

Ethical and methodological issues in engaging young people living in poverty with participatory research methods

This paper discusses the methodological and ethical issues arising from a project that focused on conducting a qualitative study using participatory techniques with children and young people living in disadvantage. The main aim of the study was to explore the impact of poverty on children and young people's access to public and private services. The paper is based on the author's perspective of the first stage of the fieldwork from the project. It discusses the ethical implications of involving children and young people in the research process, in particular issues relating to access and recruitment, the role of young people's advisory groups, use of visual data and collection of data in young people's homes. The paper also identifies some strategies for addressing the difficulties encountered in relation to each of these aspects and it considers the benefits of adopting participatory methods when conducting research with children and young people

Partial-wave analysis of the eta pi+ pi- system produced in the reaction pi-p --> eta pi+ pi- n at 18 GeV/c

A partial-wave analysis of 9082 eta pi+ pi- n events produced in the reaction pi- p --> eta pi+ pi- n at 18.3 GeV/c has been carried out using data from experiment 852 at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The data are dominated by J^{PC} = 0^{-+} partial waves consistent with observation of the eta(1295) and the eta(1440). The mass and width of the eta(1295) were determined to be 1282 +- 5 MeV and 66 +- 13 Mev respectively while the eta(1440) was observed with a mass of 1404 +- 6 MeV and width of 80 +- 21 MeV. Other partial waves of importance include the 1++ and the 1+- waves. Results of the partial wave analysis are combined with results of other experiments to estimate f1(1285) branching fractions. These values are considerably different from current values determined without the aid of amplitude analyses.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

Finance, foreign (direct) investment, and the Dutch disease: the case of Colombia

In recent years Colombia has grown relatively rapidly, but it has been a biased growth. The energy sector (the locomotora minero-energetica, to use the rhetorical expression of President Juan Manuel Santos) grew much faster than the rest of the economy, while the manufacturing sector registered a negative rate of growth. These are classic symptoms of the well-known ‘Dutch disease’, but our purpose here is not to establish whether the Dutch disease exists or not, but rather to shed some light on the financial viability of several, simultaneous dynamics: (i) the existence of a traditional Dutch Disease being due to a large increase in mining exports and a significant exchange rate appreciation; (ii) a massive increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the mining sector; (iii) a rather passive monetary policy, aimed at increasing purchasing power via exchange rate appreciation; (iv) more recently, a large distribution of dividends from Colombia to the rest of the world and the accumulation of mounting financial liabilities. The paper will show that these dynamics constitute a potential danger for the stability of the Colombian economy. Some policy recommendations are also discussed